IB Geography
CHANGING PATTERNS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Module as described in IB Syllabus: Examine the global patterns and trends in the production and consumption of oil. Examine the geopolitical and environmental impacts of these changes in patterns and trends. Examine the changing importance of other energy sources.
The Geopolitics of Cheap Oil.
The Oil Report
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The Envrionmental Impacts of Oil
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List and explain the various ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ associated
with the drop in world oil prices.
One of the winners is America because there are many gasoline consumers who are affected by change in weekly prices.
One of the biggest losers is Russia is a big oil exporter aswell as Iran. Even ISIS is affected because it relies increasingly on smuggled oil to help finance their activities. The economies of oil producers also suffer.
What is Saudi Arabia’s role in all of this?
Saudi Arabia maintaints its top spot in the worlds oil markets. The nation is keeping oil prices low and beneifitng from thier mass oil production.
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Why does the author claim the US might be a leading geopolitical power well into the new century? The United States are emerging as a large producer of shale gas.
What is the expected significance of Asia with regards to oil in the coming decades? that over the next 20 years, 85 percent of the growth in energy consumption will come from the Indo-Pacific region.
Apart from the US alone, why are the Americas expected to become a new Middle East in the coming decades? The fact that United States is the worlds largest oil producer combined with Canadian oil sands and Brazil’s oil lying beneath salt beds, these shifts have the potential to make the Americas into the “new Middle East” of the 21st century,
What will Russia’s oil trade partners look like in the coming decades? Russia is increasingly shifting its focus of energy exports to East Asia. China is on track to perhaps become Russia’s biggest export market for oil before the end of the decade, even as Russian energy firms are now developing a closer relationship with Japan
What geopolitical changes might this indicate? Sea lanes and choke points are now growing geopolitical importance because of the changing world energy market.
What role might all these changes in Supply and Demand patterns have on international global conflict? Maritime tensions are rising, as demand increase and therefore supply has to increase as well.
Based solely on oil, who should gain in geopolitical power and who should decline in geopolitical power based on the changes discussed? United States would have its own power reinvigorated by an even closer economic relationship with Canada and Mexico (which is also energy rich). The Europe-centric world of the past millennium may finally be passing as North America and the Greater Indian Ocean take center stage.
Why does oil play such a significant role in global geopolitical power? Oil is an important commodity, required worldwide as well as the fact that many major economies produce oil as a primary commodity.
The Geopolitics of Energy
The Guardian View on Cheap Oil.
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Know at least two historical examples where oil-related issues impacted geopolitics
In the mid-1980s, prices collapsed and the Soviet Union’s final demise also contibuted to the collapse in its export revenue:
In Algeria, a country dependent on oil revenues, that same price collapse reduced the price of crude to below $10 a barrel. This contributed to an election victory for Islamists, then a coup, and then civil wa
How are low oil prices expected to impact emerging economies like Brazil and Nigeria?Brazil is now reeling because of its challenged economy. This is made worse by a corruption scandal centred on its oil giant Petrobras. Brazil is a democracy; instability there is unwelcome news.
Nigeria, Africa’s number one oil-producer, will struggle with low prices as jihadi networks are spreading across that region and beyond.
How are low oil prices expected to impact Russia’s desire to return to major world power status in the coming years? Vladimir Putin appears determined to re-establish his nation as a major power through military adventurism on the European continent and in the Middle East
What is meant by the phrase ‘the oil curse?’
over-dependency on oil at the expense of modernisation and diversification.
How and why might low oil prices lead to increased international hostile attitudes? Insecure regimes seek to change attention from domestic tensions.
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The Geopolitics of Oil in the Middle East
Alternative Energy
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Explain the relationship between oil prices and socioeconomic reforms
Oil-dependent governments have announced economic reforms when the commodity price has been depressed, but when prices recover, implementation is deprioritized.
Explain the typical and the recommended role for government in the energy sectors in the Middle East.
Coherent energy policies are critical for the economies of much of the region, given the sector’s revenue windfall, but de-politicization of these policies is even more crucial to advancing stability in the region.
Governments still control most of the energy sector as a means to manage their economies, but tend to do so in rather inefficient and opaque ways. Governments would be well advised to limit their roles to clear and fair regulation, to allow the private sector to maximize the energy industry’s performance.
Explain what is driving changes in demand for Middle Eastern oil in North America and in Asia. How might all these changes impact the role the USA has played in the Middle East over the past several decades?
The driving change is the US shale gas revolution as well as the the fact that most energy consumption is industry related. As US dependence on the region recedes, Asian powers will find themselves obliged to take a stronger role in regard to the Middle Eastern political and security challenges.
